The latest monthly report on the oil market released by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) for September 2025 indicates that non-oil activities in the United Arab Emirates have demonstrated robust resilience, with consistent growth in overall production.
The report highlighted a recovery in the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) in August, rising to 53.3 points after a decline to 52.9 points in July, the lowest level in four years, driven by pressures linked to regional uncertainty and heightened competition for new orders.
The resilience of the UAE’s macroeconomy was also reflected in Fitch Ratings maintaining its credit rating at (AA-) with a stable outlook, indicating the strength of the country’s sovereign assets and bolstering investor confidence.
Furthermore, the strong performance of non-oil trade has significantly contributed to economic diversification efforts, with external trade volume increasing by 24% during the first half of 2025, greatly surpassing the global trade growth rate of 1.8%. This enhances the UAE’s position as a key global trade hub and supports the dynamism of non-oil sectors throughout the year.
The report also emphasized the pivotal role of tourism as a major growth driver, noting that Dubai welcomed nearly 10 million visitors in the first six months of the year, aligning with its economic agenda, known as “D33”, aimed at solidifying the emirate’s status as a leading global destination, contributing to public revenue and reinforcing macroeconomic stability.
Regarding global oil demand, the report stated that growth predictions for global oil demand in 2025 remain at approximately 1.3 million barrels per day year-on-year, unchanged from last month’s estimates. In OECD countries, oil demand is expected to increase by around 0.1 million barrels per day in 2025, while demand in non-OECD countries is projected to rise by approximately 1.2 million barrels per day.
For 2026, global oil demand is anticipated to grow by 1.4 million barrels per day year-on-year, also consistent with previous estimates, with OECD countries expected to see an increase of about 0.2 million barrels per day, while non-OECD nations are expected to experience a rise of around 1.2 million barrels per day.
The report clarified that fuel used in the transportation sector, including gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel, will remain the primary driver of demand in both years, alongside liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) and naphtha utilized in petrochemical industries.