Forecasts indicate that the retail and shopping sector in the United Arab Emirates is set to experience exceptional growth during the summer of 2025, compared to 2024. This anticipated expansion is driven by increasing tourism, a noticeable rise in consumer spending, and the growth of commercial activities in shopping centers, alongside various entertainment promotions. Key shopping events in Abu Dhabi, Dubai, and Sharjah are also contributing to this sector’s revival.
Initial indicators suggest that the domestic market is preparing to achieve high growth rates this year, fueled by the expansion of e-commerce, increasing purchasing power, and the interconnection of tourism with modern consumption patterns as the new school year commences at the end of August.
According to the Interregional Strategic Analysis Center in Abu Dhabi, recent reports estimate that the retail market size in the UAE could reach approximately 534 billion dirhams (around $145.3 billion) in 2024, with projections to surpass 836 billion dirhams ($227.1 billion) by 2033, supported by a compound annual growth rate of 5.1%.
This robust performance solidifies the UAE’s position as the largest retail market in the Gulf and Middle East regions, owing to its advanced commercial infrastructure and diverse distribution channels.
Analysis from the center indicates that the shopping sector in Abu Dhabi has been experiencing notable growth, particularly since early 2025, with shopping malls reporting increases in visitor numbers and sales compared to the same period in 2024. In Dubai, the 28th edition of “Dubai Summer Surprises” has commenced with discounts ranging from 25% to 75% across more than 800 brands and 3,000 retail outlets, while the Sharjah Summer Promotions will run from July 1 to early September, featuring over 1,000 participating stores.
Data from the Mastercard Economics Institute suggests that consumer spending in the UAE is projected to grow by 4.3% in 2025, benefiting from improved income levels, stable prices, and the expansion of the non-oil economy.
This optimistic outlook is further supported by International Monetary Fund predictions, which estimate that the per capita GDP adjusted for purchasing power parity will reach 374,000 dirhams in 2025, up from 355,300 dirhams in 2024.
The center confirms that both domestic and international tourism are bolstering this momentum during the summer season. According to the World Travel and Tourism Council, total international tourist spending in the UAE is expected to reach approximately 228.5 billion dirhams in 2025, reflecting a 5.2% increase compared to 2024, while local tourism spending is anticipated to reach 60 billion dirhams, growing by 4.3%. Recreational tourism spending accounts for about 84.7% of total visitor expenditures, highlighting the direct impact of tourism activities on retail sales. International tourism is estimated to contribute around 79% of total expenditures, with local tourism accounting for 21%.
E-commerce and digital shopping are experiencing significant acceleration, with e-commerce now contributing approximately 16% of total retail sales in the UAE, according to the Interregional report, marking the highest rate in the Middle East and North Africa region.
The center stated that in light of these developments, it is evident that the UAE is steadily advancing towards strengthening its leadership in the smart and sustainable shopping sector, supported by integrated infrastructure, digital transformation, flexible economic policies, and the market’s ability to adapt to contemporary consumer behavior.