The agency “Standard & Poor’s Global Ratings” anticipates that the economy of the United Arab Emirates will continue to demonstrate robust growth, expected to reach approximately 4% from 2025 to 2028. This growth is driven by a surge in non-oil sectors along with a gradual increase in oil production.
According to the agency, this economic performance persists despite challenges such as global fluctuations in oil prices and the worldwide economic slowdown.
In its latest report, the agency has rated the UAE with long-term and short-term credit ratings of AA/A-1+, maintaining a stable outlook.
The agency forecasts that the nation will achieve fiscal surpluses averaging 3.2% of GDP through 2028, assuming a Brent crude price of $60 per barrel in 2025 and $65 per barrel in subsequent years.
Nevertheless, government debt levels are expected to remain stable at around 28% of GDP.
The stable outlook reflects expectations that the UAE will maintain its strong financial and external position over the next two years, supported by prudent fiscal policies and sustainable economic growth.
The agency notes that continued surpluses in the budgets of both the federal government and local administrations, coupled with investment returns from liquid assets, will enhance net assets to approximately 177% of GDP by 2028.
It is projected that the growth outlook will remain strong over the coming years, averaging about 4% between 2025 and 2028, similar to estimates for 2024.
Additionally, oil production is expected to rise gradually as OPEC+ eases production quotas; the organization announced its third consecutive increase in production last June, including a rise of 400,000 barrels per day expected in July.
Estimates indicate that crude oil production will reach roughly 3.5 million barrels per day by 2028.
Over the past four years, the non-oil sectors have averaged a growth rate of about 6%, bolstered by notable activity in services such as construction, financial services, transportation and storage, hospitality, and manufacturing, which together account for approximately 35% of the country’s real GDP.
The agency confirmed the possibility of future upgrades to the ratings.
It added that improving monetary policy effectiveness, through the development of local capital markets, may support the credit rating.
The high credit ratings are underpinned by the UAE’s strong fiscal and external conditions, along with exceptional net government assets that provide protection against oil price volatility and regional geopolitical disruptions.
The agency commended the efforts of UAE authorities in rationalizing spending and diversifying revenue sources away from the hydrocarbon sector.
Looking ahead, the agency expects continued strong economic growth in 2025 and 2026, supported by rising oil production and strong prospects in non-oil sectors, as the country continues to implement structural reforms aimed at improving the business environment, attracting foreign investments, and drawing in talent.
It noted that geopolitical tensions in the region will have a limited impact on the UAE, thanks to its internal stability and substantial financial reserves.