Demand for residences priced at $10 million and above pushed Dubai’s “prime segment” to new highs even before the April tariff fever shook global markets. According to Knight Frank, in January-March 2025, the emirate closed 111 deals above the $10 million mark (+5.7% y/y) and 12 transactions of $25 million, Bloomberg has reported.
The main venue remained Palm Jumeirah: 34 sales worth $563 million and further growth in the capitalization of coastal villas. The growth was driven by buyers from the UK, Switzerland, India and China, who are attracted by the UAE’s tax neutrality, the “golden” ten-year visa and high dollar yields in the case of rental.
Risk fronts for developers
Faisal Durrani of Knight Frank warns that after the US president announced large-scale tariffs, the market faces a triple challenge:
- Price nerves in assets. A correction in global stock and commodity markets could cool the appetite of UHNW buyers.
- Brent volatility. A drop in oil revenues could reduce liquidity in the Gulf financial system, hitting local demand.
- Supply chains. The new tariffs threaten to increase the cost of steel, aluminum and engineering equipment, pushing back project implementation times.
Analysts note that even a partial shift in delivery times could paradoxically support prices due to a shortage of new inventory, but the risk of “frozen” sites still remains.
The emirate’s outlook
Dubai authorities are responding to the turbulence by expanding immigration and tax incentives to maintain their position as the world’s strongest “safe haven” for capital:
- Visa innovations: simplified 10-year Golden Visa for buyers of properties from AED 2 million and business founders.
- Financial guarantees: no capital gains tax and rules for free repatriation of profits.
- Infrastructural upgrade: launch of the Dubai Metro Blue Line and announced doubling of yacht marinas by 2030.
The luxury market may lose some of its momentum, but a deep global client base, a modern regulatory environment and long-term projects – from Palm Jebel Ali to Dubai Islands – keep the emirate in the status of a key platform for “trophy” real estate investments, even in conditions of geo-economic drift.