6.5% Average Current Account Surplus Expected from 2025 to 2027
3.6% Projected Budget Surplus for the Current Year and 4% for 2026 – 2027
4.8% Growth in Real GDP Anticipated from 2025 to 2027, Driven by the Expansion of Non-Oil Sectors
Oil and Gas Revenues Account for Only 40% of Total Government Revenue
The credit ratings agency, “Capital Intelligence,” has confirmed the sovereign ratings of the United Arab Emirates with a stable outlook. The long-term ratings for foreign and local currencies remain at “AA-,” while the short-term ratings are at “A1+.”
The agency noted that these ratings reflect the robustness of the UAE’s combined financial and external positions, forecasting continued strength in the coming period.
The ratings are supported by a stable internal political environment, a high per capita GDP, a solid banking sector, and ongoing governmental efforts to diversify income sources and enhance the structure of the national budget.
The report highlighted that oil and gas revenues comprise about 40% of total government revenue and approximately 24.5% of GDP for the year 2024.
Regarding external accounts, the agency confirmed that they remain very strong, with a projected decline in the current account surplus from 10.7% of GDP in 2023 to 9.1% in 2024.
Capital Intelligence anticipates an average surplus of 6.5% of GDP in the current account from 2025 to 2027, driven by improved energy exports and sustained strength in non-oil exports.
On the public finance front, the situation remains robust, bolstered by high oil revenues. The unified budget is expected to show a surplus of 3.6% of GDP in 2025, with a consistent average surplus of 4% projected for 2026 and 2027, assuming oil prices stabilize at $60 per barrel.
The UAE’s economy is expected to maintain its positive performance in the short to medium term, supported by strong domestic activity and initiatives under the “UAE Strategy for the Future.”
Real GDP grew by 4% in 2024 (compared to 4.3% in 2023), with rapid growth observed in non-oil sectors.
Forecasts indicate that real GDP will increase at an average rate of 4.8% between 2025 and 2027, thanks to the continued expansion of non-oil activities and the gradual phasing out of OPEC+ production cuts starting in 2025.
The report emphasized that the UAE’s expansion of initiatives aimed at bolstering the private sector, diversifying the economy, and narrowing the labor market gap will mitigate the impact of global economic and geopolitical risks on the nation.
The banking sector in the UAE continues to be a crucial support for credit ratings, boasting strong capitalization levels. As of the end of March 2025, the average capital adequacy ratio stood at around 17.6%, while the Tier 1 capital ratio reached 16.2%, and the core capital ratio was 14.7%.
Furthermore, asset quality has improved, with the average ratio of non-performing loans dropping to 3.8% in March 2025, down from 5% in March 2024.