Dubai – Global research team at Standard Chartered Bank has revised its forecast for the UAE’s GDP growth in 2026 upwards to 5%, an increase from the previous estimate of 4%. This adjustment indicates the resilience of the nation’s economy, which is expected to outperform the global growth average projected at around 3.4% for the same year.
According to the latest report titled “Global Trends 2026,” the economic momentum in the UAE is driven by two main factors: shifts in global supply chains and a recovery in the domestic market, which are anticipated to offset the impact of declining oil prices. Amid a fragmented global trade landscape, the report suggests that the UAE’s total foreign trade could reach USD 1 trillion by 2026, with the vibrant trade corridor between the UAE and Asia contributing about one-third of this volume.
The report further noted that the non-oil sector is expected to experience robust growth of 4.5% in 2026, backed by a favorable demographic composition, alongside sustained momentum in the real estate sector, which helps to diversify the sources of economic growth in the country.
Rola Abu Manneh, CEO of Standard Chartered in the UAE, Middle East, and Pakistan, commented on these projections, stating that the UAE continues to establish itself as a leading global economic model, anticipating a strong growth trajectory for the second consecutive year. She added that reaching the USD 1 trillion mark in foreign trade reflects the UAE’s emerging role as a key global hub, thriving despite the challenges in the worldwide trading system.
The UAE is expected to maintain a twin surplus supported by strong domestic liquidity. With deposit growth currently outpacing robust private sector credit expansion, which reached 9.1% year-on-year in mid-2025, the country records the lowest loan-to-deposit ratio in the Gulf Cooperation Council region. This situation provides Emirati banks with additional capacity to expand cross-border lending, especially in the Saudi market, where interbank interest rates remain high.
On a global scale, the research team has raised its forecast for US economic growth in 2026 to 2.3%, up from 1.7%, supported by increasing investments and business spending due to corporate tax cuts and a surge in competition related to adopting artificial intelligence technologies. It is also expected that the US labor market will begin to recover in the second half of 2026, bolstered by favorable financial conditions and strong domestic demand.
The bank also upgraded its forecast for China’s economic growth in 2026 to 4.6% from 4.3%, amid easing concerns regarding the impact of US trade policies on Chinese exports. Although a slowdown in export growth is anticipated in 2026, it will still benefit from the recent trade truce between the US and China, as well as ongoing diversification of export markets, while risks related to bilateral trade relations remain elevated.
In the Eurozone, growth expectations have slightly increased to 1.1% for 2026; however, growth perspectives remain limited due to trade pressures and economic performance disparities among member states. Meanwhile, Asia is expected to see a slowdown in growth in 2026 compared to 2025, as the contribution of exports to economic activity diminishes, alongside increasing political uncertainty in some nations.
In this context, Madhur Jha, a global economist and head of thematic research at the bank, stated that the growth outlook for 2026 appears generally positive but carries growing risks, particularly geopolitical risks and escalating challenges to the global economic system. He added that productivity gains associated with artificial intelligence may materialize faster than expected, potentially supporting global growth, while international trade growth may remain strong due to the diversification of trading partners despite ongoing challenges.