On May 31, 2025, OPEC+ declared an increase in oil production by 411,000 barrels per day for the month of July, which marks the third consecutive monthly rise. However, this announcement conceals a growing crisis that threatens the organization’s cohesion, primarily driven by the actions of the UAE.
UAE: The Defiant Member Under the Surface
Amid increasing pressures linked to the anticipated peak in global oil consumption, Abu Dhabi seems to be preparing to distance itself from potential challenges.
As OPEC’s third-largest exporter, the UAE has behaved like a member that operates independently while claiming adherence to its production quota of 2.9 million barrels per day. Yet, tanker tracking statistics indicate that its actual exports may approach 2.8 million barrels, excluding what is refined and stored domestically.
Various market observers and the International Energy Agency (IEA) suggest that the UAE’s actual production might exceed 3.4 million barrels daily—over half a million barrels more than its officially stated quota.
Hidden Complicity and Dual Reporting
It is noteworthy that this overproduction occurs amid a backdrop of tacit complicity. Consulting firms that provide production estimates for OPEC maintain business ties with both Saudi Aramco and ADNOC, the UAE’s national oil company.
Journalists face pressures that could jeopardize their access to vital information, which hampers open scrutiny. In this murky scenario, the UAE seems to be setting its own standards while exerting influence on others, taking advantage of OPEC’s remaining unity to pursue its national interests.
The Silence from Saudi Arabia
The question arises: why does Riyadh remain silent in the face of Dubai’s actions? The delicate internal dynamics within OPEC play a significant role in this silence. Saudi Arabia is wary that any public confrontation could compel the UAE to exit the group—a threat that Abu Dhabi had already issued in 2021.
The Saudi leadership recognizes that the UAE’s excess production capacity is a source of ongoing leverage, prompting them to adopt a cautious and calculated approach to manage the crisis without open conflict.
Nonetheless, this strategy gives Abu Dhabi greater flexibility, enabling it to establish itself either as a rival or an alternative to Riyadh in global oil affairs. If this trend persists, the current structure of OPEC may face serious challenges.
Abu Dhabi’s Broader Ambitions
The UAE’s maneuvers within OPEC extend beyond economic considerations; they signal a broader political strategy to counter Saudi influence both regionally and internationally.
From enhancing its presence in Africa under the pretense of providing aid to gaining traction within U.S. policymaking circles and making substantial investments in AI and renewable energy, Abu Dhabi’s efforts are geared toward solidifying its position as the leading power in the Gulf, even at the risk of destabilizing the regional order.
In terms of oil policy, the UAE favors lower prices and increasing its share of the market, with a budget balance requiring only $50 per barrel, in contrast to Saudi Arabia’s $90 due to extensive investments in mega-projects like NEOM.
This contrast in fiscal policies can lead to diverging strategies within OPEC and may escalate tensions further.
Potential for a Major Shift
As disputes over production quotas continue to grow and Abu Dhabi remains unwilling to restrain its output despite substantial investments in new capacity, the prospect of its exit from OPEC becomes increasingly likely.
If such an exit occurs, it would signify more than just a technical adjustment; it could constitute a substantial political upheaval capable of fracturing the oil cartel and forging new alliances outside its traditional framework.
Some analysts believe the UAE is intentionally nudging OPEC towards a breaking point to compel a reevaluation of production quotas or to lay the groundwork for a new alliance based on different principles. Regardless, the ultimate goal appears to be undermining Saudi dominance and reshaping the landscape of global oil influence.
An Inevitable Showdown
The tension between Saudi Arabia and the UAE has transcended mere technical disagreements over production quotas and signifies a larger contest for leadership and authority.
If Abu Dhabi pursues this trajectory, it could not only disrupt OPEC’s unity but also jeopardize the regional frameworks that have maintained stability within energy markets for many years.
Riyadh must acknowledge that maintaining silence is no longer viable, and that a decisive confrontation with its “rebellious partner” is now an unavoidable reality.