100% Anticipate Strong Growth for the UAE Economy by 2026
95% Forecast UAE’s Growth Rate to Match or Exceed Advanced Economies
The UAE’s economy is confidently poised for continued growth, with a significant rise in GDP expected this year. This optimism is reinforced by positive projections from regional and international economic entities, which predict that growth in 2026 may equal or exceed that of 2025. The solid financial health of the country supports its ongoing growth, as it has demonstrated resilience and competitiveness amid global economic challenges.
A survey conducted by local experts, involving various banks and international financial institutions, revealed that the local economy benefits from numerous growth-supportive factors. These include economic diversification, financial stability, fiscal surpluses, sustainable economic activities, progressive regulations, as well as visible market momentum and strong consumer demand.
5% Average Growth Rate with Expectations to Lead Global Economies
75% Projected Contribution from the Non-Oil Sector to GDP
Expectations to Further Reduce Oil Dependency on GDP and Revenues
Dubai International Financial Centre Drives Business Environment Impact
The UAE Market is Attractive, Doubling Opportunities for Asset Investments
International Institutions’ Message: UAE Among the World’s Strongest and Most Resilient Economies
90% Assert the Economy’s Strength Against Global Crises
80% Believe Foreign Investment Will Be Equal or Higher Than in 2025
The UAE is Solidifying Its Status as One of the Strongest and Most Resilient Economies Globally
Transformations in Supply Chains Enhance the UAE’s Role as a Global Trade Hub
Investment in Artificial Intelligence Tops Economic Policy Priorities
Private Sector Expansion Supported by Strong Growth in New Businesses and Improved Business Confidence
The expected growth in the UAE’s economy enhances corporate performance and drives intentions to expand operations and introduce more investments or services in the local market, taking advantage of anticipated consumer spending increases. The country’s strong economic growth prospects are underpinned by government development policies, strategic geographic positioning, and high levels of digital adoption along with progressive business regulations. These factors, combined with the agility and dynamism of the economy and accelerated project implementation, support the UAE’s vision for sustainable economic growth.
Overall, the opinions gathered reflect competitive growth forecasts for the UAE economy in 2026, which boosts the attractiveness of the UAE market and doubles opportunities for asset investments, whether from funds or private sector stakeholders.
All participants in the survey indicated a robust growth trajectory for the UAE economy this year. Furthermore, 95% believe the growth levels will be comparable to or better than those in advanced economies.
Additionally, 90% confirmed the economy’s resilience against international crises, and 80% expect foreign investment levels to remain equivalent to or exceed those of 2025.
Participant Insights
Specifically, 100% of respondents are confident the UAE economy will continue to expand this year without slowing down, citing the strong performance results achieved over the past years along with inherent factors like substantial financial health and expansion plans within key sectors.
Meanwhile, 60% of respondents expect the growth rate for this year to align with the 2025 target of 5%, while 30% believe it could be slightly higher, and 10% expect a potential slowdown in 2026.
Seventy percent anticipate the growth rate will outpace that of developed economies this year, while 25% think it may equal some of those economies, and 5% foresee a slight lag compared to major global economies.
Economic diversification remains a primary growth driver according to 50% of respondents, followed by the legislative environment at 20% and capital spending capacity at 15%. About 10% acknowledged that regulations and ease of doing business also contribute to growth, while 5% pointed to the importance of sustained market demand.
Half of the respondents expect the share of non-oil activities in the national economy to remain consistent this year, while 30% believe it may slightly increase and 20% think it could decrease from the 2025 share.
Regarding revenue expectations, 60% forecast balanced revenues for 2026, while 30% expect higher revenues and 10% predict lower income levels. Furthermore, 60% anticipate that new foreign investment flows will match last year’s levels, with 20% expecting higher inflows, while the remaining expect a relative slowdown in investment this year.
Moreover, 60% agree on the economy’s robustness to navigate any adverse impacts from global economic crises, while 30% believe the UAE may experience some effects but in a minimal capacity due to increased resilience. Only 10% think the local economy could be significantly affected by sudden international changes.
Furthermore, 65% forecast inflation to remain within flexible limits akin to those of 2025, which did not disrupt the economic balance; meanwhile, 25% expect it to be lower than last year, and 10% suggest it might exceed the 2025 rate.
Half of the participants foresee the UAE continuing to lead as a regional hub for living, working, and investing, especially for talents, startups, and capital of all sizes. Meanwhile, 30% believe its attractiveness will surpass previous foreign capital flow rates, while 20% think it may slow down compared to 2025 rates.
Immense Potential
Bank and financial institution executives have affirmed optimistic and strong expectations for the UAE economy in 2026, indicating it is poised for another year of robust growth. Whether the growth aligns with the World Bank’s estimate of 4.9% or the International Monetary Fund’s 5% forecast, or rises to 5.6% according to regional financial institutions, the message remains clear: the UAE is establishing itself as one of the world’s strongest and most resilient economies.
It continues to provide a supportive environment for business expansion, financial stability, and long-term sustainable growth prospects, with further reductions in oil-related influences on its output and revenues anticipated, as the non-oil sectors remain strong moving into the new year. The economic landscape of the UAE in 2026 will be driven by structural reforms, demographic strength, investment momentum, and strategic positioning. This is complemented by efficient local regulations and an appealing business climate attracting significant capital and major firms to contribute visibly to economic diversification.
Strong Foundations
Troula Abu Menah, CEO of Standard Chartered Bank in the UAE and the Middle East, projects continuous strong growth for the UAE economy in 2026 with GDP expected to grow by about 5%. This is a direct reflection of the robust economic fundamentals and the success of diversification policies that have bolstered the role of non-oil sectors as primary growth drivers. It is estimated that non-oil sectors could account for over 75% of real GDP, with positive performance expected in 2026 due to key factors such as trade and strong domestic demand. Favorable demographic trends and population growth also support consumption levels, alongside ongoing upward trends in the real estate sector, positively affecting economic activity related to housing, services, and related sectors.
She noted, “Externally, the ongoing transformations in global supply chains, coupled with increasing fragmentation in international trade, are enhancing the UAE’s role as a pivotal trade hub. Notably, total foreign trade of the UAE has surpassed one trillion USD, with this corridor accounting for about a third of the total trade balance, reflecting the depth of trade ties and the extensive network of economic partnerships, alongside the advancement of infrastructure and logistics to accommodate the growth in international trade, boosting expectations for contributions to the economy through 2026.”
Additionally, this dynamic trade landscape aligns with increased investments in technology, particularly artificial intelligence, which is a primary focus of economic policies. This supports investment flows between the UAE and the United States while enhancing collaboration in high-value sectors like advanced technology and related services. On the financial front, the UAE continues to record dual surpluses in public finances and the current account, despite relatively lower oil price conditions, supported by growing non-oil revenues and fiscal discipline. Local liquidity remains favorable due to robust external reserves and solid sovereign assets, while domestic liquidity is reflected by deposit growth outpacing credit extended to the private sector. The UAE maintains the lowest loans-to-deposits ratio across the Gulf Cooperation Council, enabling banks to capitalize on liquidity surpluses to boost lending activities, including cross-border lending within the region.
This comprehensive approach enhances the UAE economy’s ability to sustain growth even amidst fluctuations in oil prices, benefiting from a more diversified and resilient economic structure and a competitive business environment that encourages investment, innovation, and expansion in high-value activities, along with a strategic location and solid financial foundations that reinforce the country’s position as a regional and global economic hub.
Financial Stability
Furthermore, Hamza Douik, Head of Trading for the Middle East and North Africa at Saxo Bank, stated that the UAE economy is entering 2026 with strong economic momentum that distinguishes it on both regional and global levels. Currently, most major financial institutions anticipate that the national economy will achieve real GDP growth of about 5% this year, with the IMF maintaining its 5% forecast for 2026, clearly reflecting confidence in the robustness of the country’s diverse economic base and the ongoing recovery of hydrocarbon production.
He added, “With diversification continuing to play a significant role in the overall economic expansion, regional and global studies appear increasingly optimistic, predicting that the UAE will lead regional growth with real GDP growth nearing 5.6%, driven by diversification efforts and ongoing investment flows. Collectively, these forecasts indicate that the UAE is on track to maintain its position as one of the fastest-growing economies in the world throughout 2026, significantly outpacing advanced economies projected to grow around 1.5%.”
One key reason behind these positive expectations is the UAE’s ongoing success in expanding its non-oil economy. In 2025, the growth of non-oil sectors was estimated at about 5.5%, propelled by population growth, rising domestic demand, and increased infrastructure investments, along with the continuous influx of businesses and talent. These dynamics are anticipated to persist into 2026, with forecasts indicating non-oil sector growth rates between 4.5% and 5.5%, particularly in the tourism, construction, logistics, financial services, and retail sectors, supported by favorable demographics and robust confidence levels in the private sector. Furthermore, the country’s efforts to deepen its trade relations through new agreements and partnerships are expected to amplify this momentum.
While economic diversification initiatives over the past decade have significantly reduced the state’s dependency on hydrocarbons, oil still plays a significant role in national income. The hydrocarbons sector remains an important support factor and also serves as a growth driver for GDP. Under the OPEC+ production adjustment framework, the UAE Central Bank anticipates that the hydrocarbons sector’s GDP will grow by over 8% in 2026.
This recovery is expected to bolster financial stability and strengthen sovereign margins at a time when many global economies face increasing challenges due to uncertainty. Additional factors enhancing confidence in the UAE’s economic trajectory include maintaining strong financial and external positions, supported by sovereign wealth funds and prudent macroeconomic management, alongside continued healthy credit conditions in the private sector. The financial system enjoys robust liquidity, and banks retain considerable capacity to support lending and investment. These conditions ensure that the local economic activity does not solely rely on government spending, but is driven by a dynamic and increasingly diverse private sector.
Remarkable Resilience
Conversely, Tilman Coleb, Emerging Markets Strategist at UBS, indicated that expectations for GDP growth comparable to last year’s are fundamentally based on increased hydrocarbon production as voluntary cuts are gradually eased. Market dynamics in hydrocarbons remain a key influencing factor on growth outlooks, especially if global economic activity slows down or oil prices decline.
He continued, “Nonetheless, the strength of the UAE’s financial and external positions offers essential protection against potential risks, as non-oil sector momentum proceeds strongly, albeit at a slightly slower pace compared to recent years, bolstered by hospitality, construction, and financial services. As the UAE continues to attract skilled professionals and foreign direct investments, its commitment to developing an advanced local framework for artificial intelligence is expected to foster long-term sustainable growth fundamentals. Additionally, the accelerating population growth underscores the need for continual development and updating of infrastructure to avoid any potential capacity constraints in the future.”
Moreover, the UAE economy is likely to maintain notable resilience and a forward-looking vision even in the face of varying global economic conditions. Continuous investments in infrastructure, diversification strategies beyond the oil sector, and a supportive regulatory environment for investment are crucial drivers of sustainable growth, investment attraction, and talent acquisition. Simultaneously, building and developing a robust digital financial structure under clear regulatory frameworks, especially in the tokenization of real assets, enhances market efficiency, increases transparency, and broadens access to investment opportunities. This integration of pillars empowers the UAE to move towards stable growth and cements its position as a regional and global economic leader.
Strong Momentum
Economic strategy expert Yougish Khairjani from Century Financial predicted that the UAE economy will sustain strong momentum throughout 2026, with growth estimates around 5% as per international institutions. The UAE Central Bank’s projections are slightly higher at approximately 5.3%, placing the country ahead of the global growth forecast of about 3.3%, reflecting the robustness of the local economy and its strong regional positioning.
He added that the non-oil sector is poised to be the primary driver of this growth, as it is on track to contribute nearly three-quarters of GDP. Indicators of robust activity in logistics, tourism, financial services, and re-exporting confirm this growth, especially after achieving record figures in non-oil trade in 2025, which is expected to show marked growth again this year.
Highlighting the expanding business environment, the UAE recorded an increase in the Purchasing Managers Index to 54.9 in January 2026, indicating ongoing expansion in the private sector, bolstered by strong growth in new businesses and improved corporate confidence. The financial sector’s expansions further support this outlook, with Dubai International Financial Centre reporting nearly 40% growth in new firms during 2025, raising the total number of active companies to around 8,840, including a growing number of global asset managers, hedge funds, and international financial institutions as the centre influences the country’s business environment.
He expects inflation in the UAE to remain within moderate levels around 2%, which supports consumption and demand for credit and investment without imposing significant tightening pressures on financial conditions. Generally, current macroeconomic projections indicate a stable economy benefiting from diverse growth driven by investment rather than just cyclical expansion. Continuous economic base diversification backed by strong trade and investment flows, along with stable policies, reinforces confidence that the UAE economy will remain on a sustainable growth path, enhancing its status as a leading financial and commercial hub in the Middle East.
Positive Outlooks
According to Scott Thiel, CEO of TokenVest, the outlook for the UAE’s economy in 2026 is highly positive. Factors include the continued reduction of oil dependency and the rising share of non-oil sectors in GDP as diversification plans progress, bolstering growth. Key elements supporting the UAE’s economic growth entail financial strength, sound policies that attract and retain wealth, and continuously developing its legislative framework to facilitate more investments in infrastructure, renewable energy, and technology.
He stressed the importance of ongoing collaboration with regional partners to boost investments in sustainability, artificial intelligence, and financial technology. The UAE’s strategic geographic positioning offers additional competitive advantages, as its proximity to markets across the Gulf, Africa, South Asia, and Europe enables companies to serve a wide region from a single hub. With the nation’s advanced airports, ports, logistics corridors, and digital infrastructure, the UAE acts as a central platform for cross-border finance and trade, supporting the evolution of global capital flows in response to geopolitical and technological shifts.
These solid economic foundations have attracted many international financial institutions to base their regional operations in the UAE, capitalizing on regulatory stability, policy clarity, and openness to international business through a comprehensive array of economic reforms, including long-term residency programs and enabling full foreign ownership in multiple sectors, alongside streamlined licensing processes. Moreover, a supportive regulatory environment fosters innovation in areas such as digital finance, artificial intelligence, and advanced manufacturing, making this an attractive prospect for financial institutions seeking to expand efficiently.
The projections for the current year align with the UAE’s position as one of the few economies marrying stability with access to rapidly growing markets. Reports such as that from First Abu Dhabi Bank for 2026 indicate that the country is ideally placed to benefit from structural shifts reshaping global investment landscapes, especially in the realm of digital transformation and emerging technologies. The UAE consistently leads in embracing and attracting startups, reinforcing its appeal as a regional investment destination and enhancing expectations for ongoing foreign investment inflows, whether through new investments or expansions planned by companies since last year.
Thriving Sectors
Economic advisor Free Hassan Al Mazrouei predicts that the local economy will maintain high growth rates in 2026, potentially surpassing the 5% target set by international institutions, bolstered by the expanding non-oil economy, stable hydrocarbon production, and strong domestic demand. Key drivers will include the thriving tourism and aviation sectors, both benefiting from Dubai and Abu Dhabi’s global hubs, while the real estate and construction sectors are experiencing active cycles fueled by major infrastructure projects like the Union Rail project, metro expansions, and renewable energy initiatives.
Additionally, the local economy is significantly growing in various other sectors, such as trade and logistics, financial services, and technology investments, driven by the UAE’s role as a pivotal regional trade centre. This correlates with a politically, socially, and economically stable landscape, featuring control over inflation, surplus levels, a robust banking sector, and strong local capital, all of which provide policymakers with formidable tools to sustain a pro-growth environment and attract more substantial flows of direct foreign investment.
The UAE has continued its efforts to attract global talent and advanced technology while promoting innovation, fostering a highly competitive business environment across finance, logistics, and technology sectors. Additionally, proactive government initiatives bolster confidence in the country’s long-term growth prospects and reinforce its appeal as a regional and global centre for competitive and easily established business operations. Financially, the UAE has witnessed a notable uptick in the establishment of hedge funds, leveraging strong regulatory frameworks and access to a broad base of high-net-worth individuals. By 2025, Dubai had hosted approximately 102 hedge funds, while the Dubai Financial Centre announced a 35% increase in the establishment of companies in artificial intelligence and financial technology within the free zone.
This provides optimistic indicators for the future, particularly for the current year, as the state has solidified its status as a premier global destination for companies aiming to establish their regional headquarters amid a competitive tax framework, including no personal income tax and reasonably low corporate tax rates, alongside multiple free trade zones allowing full foreign ownership of enterprises.