The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has praised the remarkable resilience of the UAE’s economy amidst global uncertainties, regional conflicts, and fluctuating oil prices. It highlighted that the UAE’s economy is well-positioned to adapt to shifts in global policies, largely due to sustained efforts to enhance economic diversification and exports, along with a recovery in oil production following increases in OPEC+ allocations.
The IMF anticipates that the UAE’s economy will grow by 4.8% in 2025, with a further acceleration to 5% in 2026. This growth will be fueled by a stronger output of hydrocarbons and ongoing expansion in key non-oil sectors, such as tourism, construction, and financial services.
During the first quarter of 2025, non-oil activity in the UAE recorded a growth rate of 5.3%, driven by sectors including manufacturing, construction, financial services, and real estate. The growth of non-oil GDP is expected to maintain a rate of 4.6% in both 2025 and 2026.
The report indicated that the financial sector in the UAE remains strong and stable, bolstered by robust capital and liquidity reserves, improved asset quality, and prudent macroeconomic policies. Furthermore, the country’s public finances and external balances are expected to remain at comfortable levels. The government’s budget recorded an overall surplus of 6.4% of GDP in 2024, with the current account surplus rising to 14.5% of GDP in the same year.
The real estate sector continues to thrive, highlighting the UAE’s attractiveness as a destination for investment and employment. Property prices in Dubai have seen significant increases over the past five years (from Q1 2020 to Q2 2025). The IMF recommended close monitoring of developments in the real estate sector, given the strong growth in credit.
IMF executives commended the UAE’s ambitious and ongoing efforts, encouraging the continuation of prudent economic policies, and supporting innovation and diversification.
The report noted that the UAE’s rapid emergence as a global hub for artificial intelligence, supported by updates in public services and the business environment, will enhance its competitiveness and support medium-term growth. The directors also welcomed the authorities’ commitment to integrating climate risks into sectoral planning and financial risk management.
The IMF affirmed that the UAE is well-positioned to handle global changes, noting that substantial public financial reserves and financial assets could be utilized to support non-oil economic activities in the event of significant negative shocks.