The agency “Capital Intelligence” has affirmed the long-term sovereign credit rating of the United Arab Emirates in both foreign and local currencies at AA-. Additionally, it maintained the short-term credit rating at A1+. The agency highlighted that the international liquidity levels in the UAE remain extremely high, reinforcing the strength of the country’s financial and economic foundations.
According to the agency, this rating reflects the stability enjoyed by the UAE, its diverse economic base compared to other nations in the region, and its high per capita GDP. Furthermore, the robust support from the Emirate of Abu Dhabi continues to be a crucial factor. Effective macroeconomic management systems aimed at achieving financial integration and targeted economic growth have bolstered the stable outlook assigned by the agency.
Surplus
Capital Intelligence confirmed that the UAE’s external accounts remain very strong, anticipating a current account surplus of approximately 13.2% of GDP in 2025, down from 14.5% in 2024. The averages for 2026 and 2027 are expected to be around 11.9% of GDP. The agency noted that international liquidity levels in the UAE are still very high; official reserves reached $274 billion in October 2025, up from $238.2 billion in December 2024, and are projected to hit $280 billion by the end of 2025. This ample reserve is expected to cover about 215.4% of the external debt due in 2026. The level of international liquidity, including official reserves and liquid foreign assets held by banks, stands at a remarkable 825.6%. Additionally, the country possesses significant assets through sovereign wealth funds, notably the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, which had assets estimated at $1.11 trillion in 2024.
Oil and Gas
Regarding public financial fundamentals, the agency affirmed that the government’s financial situation remains robust, bolstered by rising oil and gas revenues. It estimates that the combined budget will record a surplus of about 5.1% of GDP in 2025, slightly down from 5.4% in 2024.
The agency projects a medium surplus in the combined budget of 4.7% of GDP, assuming an average oil price of $60 per barrel during 2026 and 2027. Furthermore, the aggregate government debt is expected to decrease to 34% of GDP in 2025, compared to 34.9% the previous year.
The agency noted that refinancing risks remain low, supported by substantial financial surpluses and easy access to capital markets. In September 2025, Abu Dhabi issued $3 billion in Euro-denominated bonds in two tranches for three- and ten-year maturities, while Dubai launched a dual bond and sukuk issuance worth $1.25 billion with a 30-year term in April 2025, both witnessing strong investor interest.
The agency anticipates that economic growth will remain robust in the short to medium term, driven by domestic activity and the implementation of reforms under the UAE’s future strategy. The real GDP is projected to grow by 4.9% in 2025, with an average growth rate of 5.1% expected for 2026 and 2027.
Furthermore, the UAE banking system is assessed to be highly resilient, with an average capital adequacy ratio of 17.4%, a Tier 1 capital ratio of 16.2%, and a common equity tier 1 ratio of 14.8% by the end of September 2025, alongside a decrease in non-performing loans to 3.2% of total loans.