This week, US President Donald Trump is set to embark on a tour of the Gulf region, with a key stop in Saudi Arabia, which he hopes will recognize Israel. He will also visit the UAE, a nation that has gained from its ties with Israel but has experienced some repercussions as well.
During his initial term, Trump facilitated a series of normalization agreements between Israel and several Arab nations, which surprised many in the Arab world and diverged from the prevailing belief that a fair resolution for the Palestinians must precede relations with Israel.
Almost five years after the UAE signed the US-sponsored Abraham Accords alongside Bahrain and Morocco, these relationships have persisted despite widespread anger in the region following the Israel-Hamas conflict in Gaza.
“If the Gaza conflict did not halt this process, then nothing will,” stated Emirati analyst Abdulkhaleq Abdulla.
Experts noted that although recognizing Israel has brought the UAE significant economic and strategic advantages, its reputation in the broader Middle East has suffered.
Despite both the UAE and Saudi Arabia being wealthy Gulf nations, the potential reputational damage weighs more heavily on Riyadh as Trump encourages it to formally normalize relations with Israel.
– Economic Gains –
The Abraham Accords, established in 2020, provided the UAE with “considerable political leverage in Washington,” according to Karim Bitar, a Middle Eastern studies lecturer at Paris’s Sciences Po university.
However, with the onset of the Gaza conflict in October 2023, “the leverage the UAE gained in the United States… has diminished in the Arab world,” where relationships with Israel are now “highly unpopular,” Bitar added.
Trade between Israel and the UAE has shown consistent growth, increasing by 43 percent last year to $3.24 billion, according to Israel’s consul general in Dubai, Liron Zaslansky, who mentioned that this figure excludes software and services.
There are nearly 600 Israeli businesses operating in the UAE, while approximately one million Israeli tourists visited the UAE in 2024, as reported by Zaslansky.
Conversely, the number of Emirati visitors to Israel remains “much lower,” particularly since October 7, the date marking Hamas’s 2023 attack that escalated the conflict.
Collaborations in technology and intelligence sharing have enhanced the UAE’s efforts to counteract the influence of regional rivals, such as Iran, which is Israel’s adversary, along with Islamist groups viewed as threats.
The UAE’s most significant achievement has been gaining the special focus and backing of the United States, a key ally of Israel.
Last year, the UAE was designated a major US defense partner, although the sale of advanced weaponry promised after the Abraham Accords, including 50 F-35 stealth jets, has yet to be finalized.
According to Abdulla, the Emiratis are “increasingly focused on AI and technology,” which are likely to be focal points during Trump’s visit to Abu Dhabi.
– Caution Ahead –
Riyadh is acutely aware that recognizing Israel has impacted the UAE’s standing in the Arab world, where many inhabitants remain opposed to normalization.
A public opinion survey conducted by the Arab Center in Washington DC in January 2024, three months into the Gaza conflict, indicated that a majority of Saudis are against recognizing Israel.
In a similar poll from 2022, only 38 percent had expressed disapproval.
The UAE faced accusations of “betrayal” from the Palestinians and claimed that, in exchange for normalization, it had secured an Israeli commitment to halt plans to annex the occupied West Bank.
However, Israel’s actions during the Gaza conflict have underscored the UAE’s limited leverage over its new partner.
Abu Dhabi maintains that normalization has enabled it to provide aid to Gaza throughout the conflict, and Abdulla noted that nearly all Emiratis “trust the government” to safeguard national interests, even as a significant majority of Arabs, including many in the UAE, “disapprove of Israel’s actions in Gaza.”
Prior to the conflict, Saudi Arabia had initiated preliminary talks with Washington regarding the establishment of ties with Israel in exchange for a security agreement and support for a civilian nuclear initiative.
However, the kingdom has since reiterated its stance, stating it will not pursue normalization without the establishment of a Palestinian state.
Sanam Vakil from Chatham House remarked that the Abraham Accords serve as a “case study for Saudi Arabia,” highlighting gains in trade, investment, and US relations, but also showcasing “limitations” concerning the Palestinian issue and people-to-people connections.
In contrast to Saudi Arabia, the majority of the UAE’s population consists of foreigners, minimizing the potential for destabilizing public dissatisfaction.
Saudi Arabia’s role as the guardian of Islam’s holiest sites raises the stakes, making normalization considerably more politically sensitive, noted Bitar.
“I surmise that Saudi Arabia will likely reconsider before following in the UAE’s footsteps.”