President Aoun’s Catch Twenty-Two Shines During Landmark Visit to the UAE

The official visit of Lebanon’s President Joseph Aoun to the United Arab Emirates marks a pivotal moment in Beirut’s efforts to rekindle relations with Gulf nations. This visit follows earlier trips to Saudi Arabia in March and Qatar in April, with plans for an upcoming engagement in Kuwait.

The main goal of Aoun’s journey to Abu Dhabi was to rebuild trust with the Emiratis after a decade of political friction. The UAE, considered a crucial economic ally, provides essential support for Lebanon’s reconstruction efforts, particularly five years post-financial crisis and just months after the recent conflict between Hezbollah and Israel. The UAE is also home to approximately ninety thousand Lebanese expatriates, making it an important location for community ties.

The results of the visit were modest, indicating that Abu Dhabi remains cautious. A joint statement from both nations announced the lifting of a travel ban to Lebanon, which had been enforced by the UAE following Hezbollah’s alignment with Hamas after the deterioration of relations on October 7, 2023. Additionally, the two countries plan to establish a bilateral business council to explore investment opportunities. The Abu Dhabi Fund for Development will send representatives to Lebanon to evaluate potential joint initiatives, and the UAE’s Knowledge Exchange Office is set to assist with governmental reforms.

However, despite these outcomes, there were no pledges for investment or aid packages for Lebanon from the UAE. Notably absent were any declarations regarding financial assistance for the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) or the exploration of gas reserves in Lebanon—both areas where significant support was anticipated.

Overall, while Aoun’s visit aimed to foster trust, it did not solidify the Emirati commitment to Lebanon. He faced similar challenges during his discussions in Riyadh, where Crown Prince Mohamed bin Salman also refrained from making any concrete financial promises. Aoun achieved more success in Doha, where the Qatari government renewed a sixty-million-dollar grant to support the salaries of the Lebanese Army.

Abu Dhabi’s cautious approach towards Lebanon is influenced by a need to evaluate Aoun’s capacity to implement change. The outcome of this assessment will determine the level of political and financial investment that Abu Dhabi is willing to make in him and Lebanon as a whole.

Aoun’s profile is appealing to the Emiratis; he previously commanded the LAF before becoming president following a prolonged three-year institutional vacuum. Alongside Prime Minister Nawaf Salam, Aoun represents a promising opportunity for Lebanon to address persistent issues, such as dismantling Hezbollah’s militia and combating the rampant corruption that has brought the country to one of its worst financial downturns in recent history.

If Aoun and the new administration succeed, they could emerge as key strategic allies of Abu Dhabi in the Levant region. Additionally, the UAE’s ongoing connections with Israel may prove advantageous, possibly facilitating communication with the Netanyahu administration to foster conditions for the transfer of power from Hezbollah to the LAF in southern Lebanon, a critical condition for the ceasefire with Israel and UN Resolution 1701.

Strengthening the LAF is essential for curbing Iranian influence in Lebanon and averting renewed hostilities with Israel. A competent Lebanese military is also crucial for maintaining border security, especially in light of potential conflicts resulting from instability in neighboring Syria, where the new leader, Ahmed al-Sharaa, struggles with sectarian violence.

However, five months into Aoun’s presidency, the prospects for Hezbollah’s disarmament and reconstruction have not significantly advanced. Aoun recently announced plans to withdraw Hezbollah’s weapons by 2025, but he quickly expressed the need to avoid triggering a civil conflict over this issue.

Aoun, like his predecessors, aims to prevent a confrontation between Hezbollah militants and the national army, recalling the memories of Hezbollah’s control of central Beirut in 2008 following an attempt by then-Prime Minister Fouad Siniora’s government to shut down Hezbollah’s communication network.

In an interview with a local newspaper, Aoun suggested that Hezbollah fighters might integrate into the LAF if they were willing to disarm.

While this proposal might seem hopeful, it echoes past sentiments that Gulf and Western leaders have heard, reminiscent of similar promises made after Syria’s withdrawal from Lebanon in 2005 and following previous Hezbollah-Israel conflicts.

Historically, the UAE and Saudi Arabia have played significant roles in bolstering the Lebanese economy. Saudi Arabia had plans to finance the LAF until it withdrew its support in 2016 amid concerns regarding Hezbollah’s influence in the army. This withdrawal marked a decrease in Gulf investments in Lebanon and led to a decline in Gulf tourists who previously frequented Beirut’s upscale hotels.

Regrettably, without considerable external support, Lebanon’s government struggles to initiate the necessary reconstruction of the country. Its infrastructure, from electricity to healthcare systems, remains in tatters. Earlier this year, the World Bank estimated that rebuilding after the war in 2024 will require around eleven billion dollars—contrast this with Lebanon’s current operating budget of three billion dollars. The World Bank has offered a $250 million loan for initial reconstruction, but subsequent funding will need to come from elsewhere.

Hezbollah, significantly weakened by its recent operations, lacks the financial resources to contribute to reconstruction. Nonetheless, its leaders can still mobilize their Shiite base, who are growing increasingly frustrated with the state’s inactivity. The longer the government delays reconstruction, the more challenging it will become to maintain public support, providing Hezbollah an opportunity to regroup and rearm. Furthermore, if Hezbollah’s military presence continues unabated, it may compel Israel to renew its military actions in Lebanon.

This situation presents Aoun with a complex dilemma: Lebanon requires the diplomatic and financial backing of Gulf nations, such as the UAE, to diminish Hezbollah’s influence and improve its economy. However, potential investors in Riyadh and Abu Dhabi remain hesitant to commit without clear indications that Aoun and his administration can deliver results, starting with the disarmament of Hezbollah.

If the Gulf states remain reluctant to engage with Aoun and the Lebanese government, stronger measures may need to be taken to confront Hezbollah directly.

Jean-Loup Samaan is a non-resident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council and a senior research fellow at the Middle East Institute of the National University of Singapore.

Additional Insights

Image: Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, President of the United Arab Emirates, meets with Joseph Aoun, President of Lebanon, at Al Shati Palace, Abu Dhabi, April 30, 2025.