The Central Bank of the UAE has reaffirmed its forecast for the real GDP growth rate to reach 5.6% in 2026, matching the expected growth from the previous year, as the national economic outlook remains strong this year.
In its annual report for the past year, the bank noted that the latest quarterly results for 2025 indicate significant economic expansion and strong business confidence amid robust market conditions and structural reform initiatives, which bolster growth projections for the current year.
These projections are also based on anticipated activities in non-oil sectors, particularly in financial services, insurance, manufacturing, and construction, alongside a rebound in oil GDP following recent increases in “OPEC+” quotas.
Despite global uncertainties, geopolitical developments, and fluctuations in oil prices, the country maintained robust economic growth in 2025, supported by sustained domestic demand. Economic activity gained further momentum towards the end of 2025, with the Purchasing Managers’ Index reaching 54.2 points in December 2025.
During the first nine months of 2025, there was a steady rise in real non-oil GDP growth. The five main sectors driving this growth include financial services and insurance, manufacturing, construction, wholesale and retail trade, and real estate activities.
Meanwhile, the average oil production stood at 3.12 million barrels per day in 2025, a 6.9% increase compared to 2024. This recovery in oil production is attributed to a more rapid adjustment of actual output following upward revisions of the UAE’s quota. Additionally, domestic gas production grew by 2.7% in 2025, supported by strong demand and a 3.9% increase in gas sales throughout the year.
Strong activity is projected in non-oil sectors led by financial services and insurance.
3.12
Million barrels per day: average oil production during 2025.