The central bank projects that the real GDP growth rate will remain at approximately 5.6% in 2026, similar to the rate expected for 2025. This optimistic outlook for the domestic economy is primarily driven by anticipated growth in non-oil sectors, particularly in financial and insurance services, manufacturing, and construction, coupled with a projected increase in oil production in line with OPEC+ adjustments.
In a report published today, it was noted that the average inflation in the UAE reached 1.3% in 2025, attributed to decreased transportation costs and textile prices, along with positive developments in food prices. Inflation is anticipated to stay moderate at around 1.8% in 2026 and 2.0% in 2027.
Regionally, the bank estimates that Gulf growth will accelerate to 4.8% in 2026, supported by a rebound in oil production and continuing economic momentum. This growth rate marks an increase from 2.5% in 2024 to 4.3% in 2025, largely driven by robust expansion in both the UAE and Saudi Arabia, especially within non-oil sectors such as financial services, manufacturing, and wholesale and retail trade. Additionally, the tourism and transport sectors have benefited from extensive infrastructure development.
Globally, the bank’s forecast indicates that the world economy could grow by around 3.3% in 2026, reflecting an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the International Monetary Fund’s estimates released in October 2025. This growth occurs amidst ongoing pressures from widening fiscal deficits and rising public debt, which may lead to higher long-term interest rates and tightened financial conditions.