Following an extraordinary year that propelled gold prices to unprecedented historical highs, attention is shifting towards 2026. There is a growing consensus among leading global banks that the upward momentum for gold is far from over. Major financial institutions, such as JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, HSBC, and Deutsche Bank, suggest that the driving factors behind this surge remain intact, indicating that gold could maintain elevated prices with the potential for additional upward movements over the coming year.
This optimism, according to these banks, stems from a combination of monetary, structural, and geopolitical elements. Key factors include the Federal Reserve’s potential interest rate cuts, waning dollar attractiveness, robust ongoing demand for gold from central banks and investors as a means of diversifying reserves and hedging against risks. Concerns regarding the financial sustainability in major economies and global geopolitical tensions further bolster gold’s standing as a safe haven, leading banks to favor a scenario of high prices in 2026, albeit with some interim fluctuations.
National Bank of Dubai
The National Bank of Dubai has indicated that precious metals notably outperformed other commodities in 2025, with gold prices soaring past $4,300 per ounce, marking an increase of over 60% by mid-December. Silver prices surged more than 120%, trading above $60 per ounce, while platinum and palladium also saw significant gains of over 100% and nearly 80%, respectively.
Gold’s recent price surge, which has seen an increase of over 130% since the end of 2022, is partially attributed to fundamental factors. Central banks have emerged as substantial gold buyers since 2022, purchasing an average of around 260 tons of gold each quarter, which is more than double their purchasing average from the previous four years.
Retail investment has also experienced an upward trend, with increasing interest in exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and strong demand for bullion and coins. Moreover, the dollar’s weakness throughout 2025 contributed to rising prices, aligning with investor interest in capitalizing on the price surge.
The outlook for gold in 2026 appears positive, with further upward movement possible. Interest rate reductions from the Federal Reserve could maintain investor enthusiasm for gold, even if real interest rates remain relatively stable amid expectations of ongoing inflationary pressures in the U.S. A declining dollar, alongside the Fed’s efforts to cut rates while other central banks maintain or hint at tightening policies, could further incentivize gold prices. However, it is anticipated that dollar movements may not be as pronounced as in 2025, potentially limiting the upward thrust it provides for gold.
In addition to monetary factors, increasing concerns about financial sustainability in several G20 economies are expected to keep investor interest directed towards gold as a relatively safe haven. The current global geopolitical climate is also contributing additional support to gold’s bullish outlook.
The bank forecasts that the average gold price could reach approximately $4,500 per ounce in the fourth quarter of 2026, representing a nearly 10% increase compared to average prices in the same quarter of 2025. However, this forecast carries significant upward and downward risks.
If the U.S. economy shows more definitive signs of slowing down, such as deteriorating labor markets, it could prompt the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates more aggressively than expected, adding further support for rising gold prices. Conversely, stable economic policies and a gradual reduction in rates might enhance the appeal of bond yields or stock markets, drawing some momentum away from gold.
JPMorgan Chase
According to JPMorgan, gold prices enjoyed sustained gains throughout 2025, rising by as much as 55% and surpassing the $4,000 per ounce mark for the first time in October. Trade concerns, reduced dollar demand, and increased purchases by central banks created ideal conditions for this historic surge.
As we look forward to 2026 and beyond, questions arise regarding the future of gold prices. Natasha Kaniva, the head of global commodities strategy at JPMorgan, stated that while the rise in gold prices has not been—nor will it be—a smooth ascent, the factors supporting higher gold reevaluation have not yet run their course. The long-term shift toward diversifying official reserves and investor interest in gold continues, and strong demand is expected to drive prices towards $5,000 per ounce by the end of 2026.
Overall, J.P. Morgan Global Research predicts an average gold price of about $5,055 per ounce by the final quarter of 2026, with prices expected to continue rising towards approximately $5,400 per ounce by the end of 2027.
Goldman Sachs
In contrast, Goldman Sachs anticipates that gold will continue its upward trajectory throughout 2026, albeit at a non-linear pace characterized by intermittent fluctuations. According to the bank’s projections, gold prices may initially start at $4,230 per ounce, eventually rising to $4,433, then $4,628, reaching about $4,815 per ounce later in the year.
This trajectory reflects the bank’s belief that supportive factors for gold, including investment demand and central bank purchases alongside reduced dollar appeal, will remain influential, with expectations of sporadic price spikes rather than consistent, continuous increases.
Bank of America
Bank of America Global Research anticipates that the average gold price in 2026 could hover around $4,400 per ounce, potentially climbing to around $5,000 per ounce in a bullish scenario supported by investor demand and global economic pressures.
Deutsche Bank
Deutsche Bank has raised its gold price forecasts for 2026, expecting an average price of approximately $4,450 per ounce, an increase from previous, lower estimates.
The bank noted that gold prices might range between $3,950 and $4,950 per ounce throughout 2026, bolstered by sustained strong demand from central banks and stable investment flows, along with the role of ETFs in supporting the market.
The bank maintained that structural factors in the gold market remain positive, providing a robust foundation for maintaining high prices in the upcoming year.
HSBC
In a research note, HSBC foresees that gold will continue its upward momentum in 2026, with prices potentially reaching around $5,000 per ounce in the first half of the year, and an annual average of about $4,600 per ounce, driven by strong central bank demand and an increase in investment in the metal as a safe asset.