The latest fuel price hike in the United Arab Emirates, which came into effect on February 1, has once again raised the issue of price stability amid changes in global oil policy and geopolitical tensions. After two months of relative stability in January rates, the updated prices have sparked a wave of discussion among experts and drivers, Khaleej Times has reported.
Analysts warn that if the situation on the global energy market worsens further, another fuel price hike is likely. Volatile oil markets, particularly due to US sanctions and supply issues, remain a major risk. Since 2015, when the UAE deregulated gasoline prices, fuel prices have been revised monthly, depending on global trends.
Further price changes possible
According to the February update, Super 98 gasoline costs 2.74 dirhams per liter, compared to 2.61 dirhams in January. Despite the increase, the price remains significantly lower than the record high of 4.63 dirhams in July 2022, when a liter of fuel cost 4.63 dirhams. At that time, the price was affected by the rapid increase in demand after the Covid-19 pandemic.
However, the current situation is also a cause for concern. The global economy faces many challenges, and the oil market remains sensitive to any changes. Experts note that Brent crude oil prices could again exceed $80 per barrel, especially if geopolitical tensions increase. Among the main risks are US sanctions against Iran and supply disruptions in North America.
According to a Wall Street Journal survey, in the first quarter of 2025, the average Brent price is expected to be $75.33 per barrel, with a gradual decrease in subsequent quarters. But overall uncertainty remains. In particular, the aforementioned initiative of the Donald Trump administration regarding the maximum pressure campaign on Iran could significantly reduce global oil supplies – up to 1.3 million barrels per day, which would have a direct impact on prices. A similar situation was already recorded in 2018, when oil quotes exceeded $80 per barrel.
OPEC+ and the long-term perspective
In the current situation, the role of OPEC+ remains key: a possible decision to increase production or, conversely, limit it, could affect price stability. Analysts at Goldman Sachs and other leading financial institutions believe that while short-term growth risks remain, long-term forecasts are more moderate. High levels of unused capacity and a possible decrease in demand due to a change in tariff policy could restrain price jumps.
For UAE motorists, who have long been accustomed to stable fuel prices, the situation is becoming less predictable. One must be prepared for monthly fluctuations caused not only by global economic processes, but also by local decisions on pricing.
The result of the interaction between the UAE’s domestic pricing policy and the dynamics of global markets will determine how much the changes will affect consumers. Despite the current uncertainty, experts do not rule out the possibility of stabilization in the medium term. However, citizens should closely monitor price updates and global trends to navigate the rapidly changing situation.