The economies of the Gulf region are set to experience clear variations in growth and financial stability during 2026 and 2027. The United Arab Emirates is anticipated to emerge as the most balanced economy, combining real growth with financial surpluses and price stability, according to the latest projections from Emirates NBD.
The bank forecasts the UAE’s economy to sustain strong growth in 2026 at a rate of 4.98%, before experiencing a healthy slowdown to 4.1% in 2027, with nominal GDP rising to $606 billion in 2026 and projected to reach $636 billion in 2027.
In terms of financial sustainability, the UAE is expected to maintain a current account surplus of 13.4% of GDP in 2026, tapering slightly to around 12.9% in 2027, along with a budget surplus of approximately 3.9% in 2026, which is expected to decrease marginally to 3.4% in 2027.
These figures indicate that the UAE enters 2026 and 2027 from a position of rare financial and structural strength both regionally and globally. The consistent high current account surplus exceeding 12% of GDP reflects the UAE’s ability to generate foreign cash flows that surpass its needs, whether through exports, services, or investment income. This enhances the currency’s stability and provides a broad buffer against global fluctuations.
Moreover, achieving a budget surplus demonstrates the government’s capacity to fund its expenditures without resorting to borrowing, while continuing to invest in infrastructure and economic development. The combination of external and financial surpluses indicates sustainable growth and fiscal discipline, providing the UAE with substantial flexibility to absorb shocks, bolster investor confidence, and solidify its position as a stable and attractive economy for long-term investments.
Gulf Performance
Qatar is expected to maintain one of the strongest financial positions in the Gulf, with growth exceeding 5% and external surpluses surpassing 14% of GDP. Meanwhile, Kuwait is combining a recovery in growth with significant current account surpluses but continues to face a fiscal deficit. Oman and Bahrain are on a path of more moderate growth and cautious financial stability.
Among Arab nations outside the Gulf, projections indicate a gradual economic recovery during 2026 and 2027, although constrained by financial and inflationary pressures in certain markets. In Egypt, growth is projected to rise to around 4.9% in 2026, bolstered by a gradual easing of inflation despite ongoing current account and budget deficits.
Morocco is expected to maintain stable growth nearing 4.5% with relatively low inflation. In Jordan and Tunisia, growth continues at moderate levels between 2.5% and 3%, facing persistent financial challenges. Algeria and Iraq are showing improved growth supported by the hydrocarbon sector, although financial surpluses are projected to decline compared to previous years.
Oil and Metals
Regarding commodities, the bank anticipates that oil prices will stabilize relative to their historical levels in 2026, with the average price of Brent around $60 per barrel and West Texas Intermediate near $55, which will provide a supportive backdrop for the budgets of producing countries without generating significant inflationary pressures.
For precious metals, forecasts suggest that gold will maintain strong levels close to $4,500 per ounce by the end of 2026, driven by investment demand and hedging activities, while silver is expected to fluctuate between $60 and $65 per ounce.
In the industrial metals sector, prices for copper, aluminum, and nickel are projected to benefit from growing demand associated with renewable energy and infrastructure projects, with gradual increases expected during 2026, providing additional support for the region’s economies linked to global supply chains.